WC 2026 · Semifinal & Final analysis hub
The Data Verdict
24 tournament matches. Four semifinalists. Six matchup permutations, every stat decoded, every pattern collision named. Model probabilities, goal-timing heatmaps, position-by-position edge, and "The Fix" — what each team must change to win it all.
Live semifinals
Confirmed fixtures
Potential finals
Every permutation, previewed
The hook
Four numbers decide the trophy
England concede ZERO after 69'
Argentina score 10 of 17 goals after 75'. One pattern dies in Atlanta.
Spain concede nothing after 41'
A harder wall than England's — three Spain goals conceded came in the first 41 minutes of the tournament, none since.
France's middle hour is 10–0
Both goals France have conceded came at 21' and 90' — the bookends. Between 31' and 75' they are unbeaten and unscored on.
Argentina concede 4 of 6 in the 55'–67' window
A scheduled emergency, not variance. Substitute before the window opens, not after the goal.
Baseline
The four semifinalists — 6 games each
| Team | GF | GA | Poss % | Shots | GK % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇫🇷 France | 16 | 2 | 58.7 | 18.5 | 83.3 |
| 🏴 England | 13 | 6 | 57.8 | 15.3 | 70 |
| 🇦🇷 Argentina | 17 | 6 | 58.7 | 15.8 | 57.1 |
| 🇪🇸 Spain | 11 | 1 | 66 | 17.3 | 88.9 |
Methodology
All numbers computed from the 24 tournament matches of Argentina, England, France and Spain (6 games each) plus FIFA's official player-tracking leaderboards. Model probabilities blend possession-adjusted xG, opponent-strength adjustment and goal-timing distributions. Fanzaful analysis — not affiliated with FIFA.