WC 2026 Semifinal · Data verdict
France vs Spain
Position-by-position data breakdown from 24 tournament matches of every semifinalist. Formations, goal-timing collisions, "The Fix" and the model verdict for France vs Spain.
Tuesday, Jul 14, 3:00 PM EDT · AT&T Stadium, Arlington
Key facts
- France: 4-3-3, Didier Deschamps
- Spain: 4-3-3, Luis de la Fuente
- Kickoff: Tuesday, Jul 14, 3:00 PM EDT
- Venue: AT&T Stadium, Arlington
Model win probability (90 min)
Head-to-head
Every stat, six games each
The pattern collisions
Four numbers that decide it
England concede ZERO after 69'
Argentina score 10 of 17 goals after 75'. One pattern dies in Atlanta.
Spain concede nothing after 41'
A harder wall than England's — three Spain goals conceded came in the first 41 minutes of the tournament, none since.
France's middle hour is 10–0
Both goals France have conceded came at 21' and 90' — the bookends. Between 31' and 75' they are unbeaten and unscored on.
Argentina concede 4 of 6 in the 55'–67' window
A scheduled emergency, not variance. Substitute before the window opens, not after the goal.
Goal-timing heatmap
When goals arrive — 6 games each
Common-opponent test
Same opponent, different result
vs Cape Verde
- Spain: 0–0 (23 shots, 0 goals)
- Argentina: 3–2 AET (conceded 15 shots)
vs Austria
- Spain: 3–0 (5 shots against)
- Argentina: 2–0 (6 shots against)
vs Norway
- France: 4–1 (19–10 shots)
- England: 2–1 AET (conceded 13 shots)
The fix
What each team must change
The favourite's job is to not invent problems
- 1.Solve the low block (Paraguay held them to one goal at 76% possession — their only soft file).
- 2.Guard the bookends. Both goals conceded came at 21' and 90'; the middle hour is 10–0.
- 3.Nothing else. Front three never rotated, Maignan at 83.3% save rate.
One fix wins the trophy
- 1.Fix the finishing. 10.6% conversion (worst of the four): 23 shots and zero goals vs Cape Verde; a 1–0 over Uruguay from five shots. The system already generates 17.3 shots behind a defence allowing 5.8. They don't need a new plan — they need a finisher.
- 2.Resolve Pedri. Started five straight, absent from the QF XI — the biggest unpriced variable in the final four.
- 3.Strike earlier. The 88'–90' Merino habit works only if the opponent is also scoreless — and France score in the middle hour every week.
Data verdict
France by process, Spain by patience. The model splits it 40.9 / 29.8 with a 29.3% draw — the tightest tail in the tournament. France score in the middle hour every week; Spain concede nothing after the 41st minute. If Spain get to 42' scoreless, this is a coin flip. If France score inside the middle hour, they win.
Compiled 2026-07-12 · Fanzaful analysis — not affiliated with FIFA.
FAQ
Quick answers
Who is favored — France or Spain?+
The model gives France a 40.9% chance to Spain's 29.8%, with a 29.3% draw. France have the highest xG output of the four semifinalists (18.5 shots/game); Spain have conceded only one goal in six games.
What time is France vs Spain and where is it played?+
Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 3:00 PM ET at AT&T Stadium, Arlington, Texas. The winner meets England or Argentina in the July 19 final at MetLife Stadium.
Can Spain's defence stop Mbappé?+
Spain's defence has allowed 5.8 shots per game (best in the tournament) and Unai Simón is saving 88.9% of what he faces. But France score in the middle hour every week — the 31'–75' block is 10–0 in goals. Spain concede nothing after the 41st minute; if the game is scoreless at half-time, Spain's trend is decisive.
What is Spain's biggest problem in this match?+
Finishing. Spain generate 17.3 shots per game but convert just 10.6% — the worst rate among the four semifinalists. They took 23 shots against Cape Verde without scoring. The system creates chances; the finisher isn't landing them.