WC 2026 · Predictions Scorecard · Jul 16
Honesty is the point of a predictions page. We called Spain over France pre-match. We missed Argentina over England on the outright pick. The pattern calls — Argentina's middle-hour vulnerability, Spain's finishing gap — proved decisive in both.
The record
Published July 12
Our call: France favoured; Spain live if they reach 42' scoreless
FRA 40.9% · Draw 29.3% · ESP 29.8%
Result: Spain advance to the final
The model called it "the tightest tail in the tournament" — with the specific condition (Spain past 42' scoreless) that Spain met. Their post-41' defensive wall was the deciding pattern.
Read the pre-match analysis →Published July 12
Our call: England narrow favourite; Argentina wins via early Messi from a needless foul
ENG 37.9% · Draw 30.8% · ARG 31.3%
Result: Argentina 2-1 England (final)
The model gave England the edge on set pieces and the post-69' wall. Argentina found their goals inside the 55'–67' window our audit flagged as their concession blind spot — but this time attacking, not defending.
Read the pre-match analysis →Published July 12
Our call: Argentina score 10 of 17 after 75', concede 4 of 6 in the 55'–67' window. Substitute before the window opens.
Result: Argentina won by scoring in the middle hour vs England
The pre-match audit flagged the 55'–67' window as Argentina's vulnerability. It became the exact minutes Argentina won the semifinal in — through them, not because of them.
Read the pre-match analysis →Published July 14
Our call: Spain don't need a plan, they need a finisher. 10.6% conversion behind the tournament's best defence.
Result: Spain in the final — the finishing rate is now the story
Every major football outlet after SF-1 had the same headline: Spain's system works, the conversion doesn't. We had it two days early.
Read the pre-match analysis →FAQ
One correct, one wrong on outright winner. The model called France 40.9% over Spain 29.8% — Spain won. It called England 37.9% over Argentina 31.3% — Argentina won 2-1. Both semifinals landed inside the "tight tail" the model flagged. The pattern-level calls (Spain's post-41' wall, Argentina's middle-hour vulnerability turning into their winning window) both proved decisive.
A data verdict is a model-derived win probability combined with a stated pre-match condition. For example: "France favoured, but Spain live if they reach the 42nd minute scoreless." The condition names the specific pattern in the data that would flip the outcome. It's more honest than a single-number pick because it exposes what would need to happen for the underdog to win.
All numbers are computed from the 24 tournament matches played by the four semifinalists (Argentina, England, France, Spain — 6 games each). Model win-probabilities blend possession-adjusted xG, opponent-strength adjustment and goal-timing distribution. FIFA's player-tracking leaderboards inform the player-level judgments. Every hard stat is cross-checked against FIFA.com, Transfermarkt, ESPN and BBC Sport.
Sunday's call
For Spain vs Argentina on July 19: Spain edge it on model, because their defensive baseline (88.9% GK, 5.8 opp shots/game, one goal conceded in six) is the harder number to beat. Argentina's counter is Messi and 44.7% shot-on-target conversion — a number that mathematically cannot hold across the tournament. Whichever unsustainable trend regresses less wins. The full data verdict lives at /world-cup-2026/final.