Kylian Mbappé
8 goals — tournament co-lead with Messi. Left channel where Dembélé creates the space.
WC 2026 · France · The Audit · Jul 14
France's One Soft File — The Low Block
France arrive as the model favourite with the tournament's cleanest defensive record and the highest xG. The one file they have failed: a team that gives them 76% possession and dares them to break the deadlock.
The four numbers
16 / 2
Goals for / against — best differential
18.5
Shots/game — highest of 4
10-0
Goals in the 31'–75' window
76%
Paraguay possession → 1 France goal
01 · The Autopsy
The middle hour is a fortress. The low block is the ceiling.
- 01
The front three never rotates
Mbappé, Dembélé and Kolo Muani have started every knockout together. Eight of Mbappé's goals come from the left channel where Dembélé draws the second defender. When it works, it produces the tournament's highest xG (18.5 shots per game).
- 02
The middle hour is a fortress
Between minutes 31 and 75, France have scored 10 goals and conceded 0 in six games. Both goals they have conceded came in the 21st minute (Iran) and the 90th minute (Australia). Between those bookends, France do not concede.
- 03
The bookend concessions
A 21' opener and a 90' consolation are the only defensive failures in six games. Both came after long possession sequences from an opponent that had already conceded — France concentrate less when the game is decided. Not a structural flaw. But not zero.
- 04
The one soft file: the low block
Paraguay held France to a single goal at 76% possession. That is the ceiling of France's attack against a team that concedes shape and dares them to break the deadlock. Spain do not play that way. England could.
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The conclusion the numbers force
The favourite's job is to not invent problems. The front three is right. Maignan is right (83.3% save rate). The middle hour is right. The only fix France need is a Plan B for when the game is 0-0 at 60' against a team defending in a low 4-4-2 — a problem they might not see until the final.
02 · The Key Players
The XI that hasn't needed to change
Mike Maignan
83.3% save rate. 2.0 shots on target conceded per game — second-lowest in the semifinals.
Eduardo Camavinga
The engine of the middle hour. Recycles possession and blocks the transition band where opponents typically try to score.
Ousmane Dembélé
The double-team magnet. Every goal Mbappé scores from the left starts with Dembélé forcing the second defender.
The Verdict
France arrive as the semifinal favourite for good reason. The favourite's job is to not invent problems. The front three is settled, Maignan is elite, and the middle hour is untouched. The only unresolved file is the Paraguay problem — and the two teams who could ask it (Spain in the semi, England in a potential final) will try to.
Author & methodology
Analysis by Fanzaful. Team statistics are computed from all 24 matches played by the four semifinalists (6 games each). Cross-checks against FIFA.com, Transfermarkt, ESPN and BBC Sport. Not affiliated with FIFA.
Last updated: 2026-07-14
Semifinal
France vs Spain — the data verdict →
Full profile
🇫🇷 France — squad, tactics, chants →
Companion audit
Spain — the finishing problem →